Betfair Betting Challenge

Written by Site Editor Friday, 28 August 2009 17:46

Okay, here's the deal. I came up with this idea of a challenge to turn £200 into £100,000 by simply 'snowball betting'. 'Snowball betting' for anyone who doesn't know is what the name pretty much suggests, betting the full total pot on each bet. So let's say £5 bet wins you £12.50, the next bet would be the full amount of £12.50 and so on...

Now there's no guaranteeing that we'll get anywhere near our total - of course if there was we'll all be doing it. Let's face it the odds would suggest we won't. For example, we would have to make 19 consecutive winning bets of at least 1.4 to turn £200 into £100,000.  

If this is possible, it would only be possible with the help of Mr Bonus Abuse who's put in half of the £200 initial kitty. This might end up in a very damp duck. Knowing our luck we'll be all out first bowl in a Bopara-esque batting performance in the 4th Test of the Ashes. If that does happen then I'll probably un-publish these articles out of embarrassment.

Okay so here goes, if you're reading this from the beginning then keep coming back to see how we're getting on, if you're arriving late then don't cheat by scolling down! And the image (top right) is of a 100,000 Polish Zlotty note - you try and find a £100,000 Sterling note in google images!

Bet 1 - England to win the Ashes (WIN) TOTAL - £234.2

Written by Site Editor Monday, 31 August 2009 14:27

We have decided to do most if not all of our bets on Betfair. There are a few reasons for this, one is so we can guarantee all our stakes are matched. Some bookies will limit our stake later if we are successful. Also it's a bit easier to use one bookie instead of transferring money from bookie to bank to bookie. And you also get a £25 matched bet on your first sportsbook stake.

Well our first bet came on Saturday when Australia were 2 wickets down in their second innings at the Oval. A juicy price of 1.2 on England was enough to tempt me and Mr Bonus Abuse. Not the most risky of bets for our first one but at least we're on our way. An emphatic England victory an the Oval saw our total increase from £200 to £234.20. 

One bet down and a hell of a lot more to go......

2nd Bet Proving Hard To Find

Written by Site Editor Tuesday, 08 September 2009 21:19

Our second bet has still not been made. We keep seeing great bets but for one reason or another we keep missing out.

A week or so back we looked at over 8 goals in a Champions League night with five games. At 1.1 we thought this was great value. Tonight Mario Cilic beat Andy Murray and he was 1.1 at two sets and a break up in the third set. Unfortunately I didn't answer my phone to Mr Bonus Abuse. 

We're not in a hurry to place a bet so keep checking back for our progress....

Bet 2 - Federer to beat Soderling (WIN) TOTAL - £253.82

Written by Site Editor Thursday, 10 September 2009 12:47

Well, after nearly two weeks since the first bet, we finally found our second bet, and it copped! The Swiss maestro Roger Federer to beat Robin Soderling in the quarter final of the US Open. I was on my way to bed and Mr Bonus Abuse shouted we've got a bet. I'm not normally a fan of betting at long odds on, but Federer is super human so I said yes.

We went in at 1.08 on Betfair, putting on our balance of £234.20, it's surprising how it doesn't feel like real money. Luckily we got a few quid matched at the slightly better price of 1.09 so we stood to win £19.62 after commission. I didn't watch the game, I left that to Mr. Bonus Abuse. I must say I was relieved to get a text this morning on way to the tube saying, 'Fedex, a nice winner'. So that's us well on our way now, hopefully the next bet will present itself a bit quicker than this one. 

So after two bets we have managed to turn £200 into £253.82......I can sense retirement, can you?

Bet 3 - Bulls To Beat Hull (WIN) TOTAL - £369.56

Written by Site Editor Saturday, 12 September 2009 21:33

Our Third bet was a stressful one. Mr Bonus Abuse is a rugby league fan and with the Engage Super League Play-offs looming, he saw value in Bradford Bulls playing away at the KC Stadium. The Bulls needed to win and hope that the Catalan Dragons were defeated by St Helens at Knowsley Road. With the Super League Champions, St. Helens, the massive favourites it looked likely that The Bulls would be giving 110% to ensure they make the play-offs.

The Bulls were 1.48 at Betfair and would be our biggest odds to date, so would this see a disappointing end to our challenge? In short - No! Our winning run continues and our balance now stands at £369.56. It wasn't as straight forward as we hoped though. With Hull dominating the majority of the first-half and taking scoring first, with a converted try, I was contemplating having to write my last article. The Bulls forged their way in front, however, and at 6-18 looked comfortable.

Hull were two converted tries behind but not for long - after around 70 minutes Radford scored Hull's third try bringing them level at 18-18. Despite knowing that there were still points to be scored in this game, our 1.48 wager was not looking so safe. Our prayers were answered with Paul Deacon's third drop goal of the season three minutes from the final whistle. Bradford then went on to finish the game off with a penalty making the scoreline 18-21.

Our jubilation was not shared by The Bull's players as Catalan Dragons had a shock victory over St. Helen's, dumping Bradford Bulls out of the play-offs.

So we live to see another day.

Challenge Rethink

Written by Site Editor Saturday, 12 September 2009 23:01

We have had to have a bit of a rethink about our £100K Challenge. Knowing from our first three bets that we are going to struggle once our bet sizes increase, due to the liquidity on the Betfair site. We simply won't be able to get enough money on to keep the snowball going. The chances of getting £80K matched is pretty minimal apart from a small number of sporting events.

As our bets increase our options for markets will reduce therefore we have decided to tweak our target amount to £10K. Which is the reason this article now sports the image of Fukuzawa Yukichi (A Japanese writer) on a 10,000 Yen note.

Bet 4 - Australia To Beat England, 4th ODI (WIN) TOTAL - £439.77

Written by Site Editor Sunday, 13 September 2009 13:20

After England posted a pityful 220 runs in their innings in the 4th One Day International at Lords, Australia were 1.2 to go 4-0 up in the seven match series. The Aussies having already chased down 228 in the 3rd ODI with ease, we could see little chance of Australia capitulating to the standard of England.

We were not wrong either, the Aussies cruised to a seven wicket victory with a massive 38 balls remaining. This £70.21 win has taken us £9,560.23 away from our £10K target.

Bet 5 - Australia To Beat England, 6th ODI (WIN) TOTAL - £548.39

Written by Site Editor Friday, 18 September 2009 09:20

England collapsed, to their sixth straight defeat of the Natwest ODI series at Trent Bridge, on Thursday, and I saw it coming mid-way through the Australian Innings.

The Aussies were looking comfortable with Tim Paine and Mike Hussey at the crease, with the score 200-2 off 38 overs, and with a power play to come, it was time to make a quick call to Mr. Bonus Abuse. He's a man to get you a Betfair price if you need one. To my shock Australia were a huge 1.26. What on earth were the layers thinking??

We both agreed that the price was screaming 'value,' so Mr. Bonus Abuse unloaded our bank of £439.77 on to the Aussies. It seemed that as soon as we'd clicked submit on the Betfair screen the Aussies dropped wickets! Two fell quickly and the odds increased to 1.4, but it wasn't long before the ball was get thrashed around the park off the bowling of Sidebottom and the Aussies were in a commanding position.

Australia finished on 296-8 which left England a mountain to climb. Especially as they were chasing under the floodlights. Our cause was also hepled when Andrew Strauss was given out incorrectly for a duck (the ball coming off his shoulder). From that moment on, it was one way traffic and England collapsed to 185 all out, losing by 111 runs their third biggest defeat on home soil in ODI history.

So the challenge goes on, five bets down and a bank of £548.39. Hopefully the bets will present themselves more frequently now. I'm sure we'll be going in again on Sunday, when England look like losing again! We will stick a Betfair screen shot up in the next few days just in case we have have any doubters, s'long for now.

Close to placing our 6th bet

Written by Site Editor Tuesday, 22 September 2009 19:20

I was at work today and got a call from Mr. Bonus Abuse, he began the call by saying, "Buffet bet, we've got a buffet bet." Now for those of you who don't know, that means help yourself to as much of a bet on Betfair as you want. 

He was sat at home watching the South Africa v Sri Lanka game and with the score 286-3, with four overs of the Sri Lankan innings to go Mr. Bonus Abuse thought that 1.41 about a Sri Lanka win on Betfair was too big. Unfortunately I don't have the luxury of watching sport all day, and having not seen any of the game, wasn't so keen. 

I said, "It's up to you!" I think judging on the his current run of form he thought, he'd better leave it. Were talking about a punter here, who thought Roger Federer was a good bet at 1.03, to beat Juan Martin Del Potro mid way through the second set!

So the hunt goes on for our sixth bet. I'm sure there will be some more 'value' bets later in the ICC Champions Trophy, possibily on Friday when England begin their campaign.

England v Sri Lanka ICC Trophy

Written by Site Editor Friday, 25 September 2009 13:55

Quiet day at work today, so I'm managing to watch some of the ICC Trophy Group B game, between England and Sri Lanka. We contemplated backing Sri Lanka before the game at odds of 1.50 on Betfair, however, we decided against it as we feel we should concentrate on in-running betting.

England won the toss and put Sri Lanka into bat, as the conditions were very bowler friendly. The opening bowlers, Onions and Anderson made a very quick start and reduced Sri Lanka to 17-4. I contacted Mr. Bonus Abuse as I thought the 1.25, about an England was far too big. He agreed so I logged into Betfair and stuck our balance of £548.39 on at odds of 1.25. We stand to win £130.24 after commission. C'mon England.

Bet 6 - England To Beat Sri Lanka, ICC Trophy (WIN) TOTAL - £678.63

Written by Site Editor Saturday, 26 September 2009 10:44

Phew - This one was a roller-coaster of a game. England in the end, won comfortably by six wickets, but when England started their innings losing 2 wickets cheaply for 19 runs after 7.3 overs, England went right out to over 3/1. For want a better phrase my bum was winking at this point. I couldn't help thinking what my emotions would be like when we're risking thousands of pounds? Let's just hope we get to that point.

Within the next few days I'll publish our P&L (a screen-dump from our Betfair Account Statement page). I don't want you guys thinking these are virtual bets or that we lost in the first few bets and decided to make the rest up. As I have said before, anything could happen in this challenge, I don't know exactly what we're going to do if this challenge comes to an end. We haven't thought that far ahead.

Value in-play on Betfair

Written by Site Editor Wednesday, 30 September 2009 13:10

Well, one thing seems pretty clear..... Judging on our six bets to date, the key to making profit on Betfair is to bet in-play and at reasonably short odds, (the latter statement may seem blatantly obvious I know)

Of the six bets, five have been placed whilst the action has been in progress and notably four of these have been placed on cricket, at short odds (less than 1.3).  I know it’s easy to say, that at the odds which we are playing, we should win and I would agree, but what is important, is that Mr Bonus Abuse and myself believe we are getting value, when placing these bets.

As a punter the first rule to making profit, is to bet at value. In the long run it is impossible to lose if you bet with value. So why are we getting value and why do we get that feeling of a ‘good thing’ more often when betting in-play? The answer is simple, mug Betfair punters ‘greening up’.

The advent of Betfair has allowed punters to trade. By that I mean, place more than one bet on the outcome of a game with the idea of winning, regardless of the result. This provides value seeking punters with a wealth of opportunities.

Let’s take a football match as an example, Chelsea are at home against Fulham, they are 2-nil up with 20 minutes to go. Hundreds of punters back Chelsea pre-game at odds of 1.5 but with Chelsea two up they panic and want to at least secure their stake but most will actually make the position ‘green’ so they win on all outcomes.

Realistically what is the chance of Chelsea conceding two goals, let alone three to lose the game? I would surmise that Chelsea would win the game 99 times out of a hundred. On Betfair I can guarantee Chelsea would be backable at odds of 1.05 or 1.06. That is screaming value to me!

The same situation happens across all markets most notably golf and cricket, where traders are even more prevalent. Let’s just hope we get some Betfair punters eager to ‘green-up’ offering us value, as we continue on our quest to win 10k.

Seventh bet placed

Written by Site Editor Friday, 02 October 2009 15:55

The seventh bet is placed, and in the words of Mr Bonus Abuse, "we're going to nick a ton."

With England performing diabolically, sitting at 95-5 and with odds of 1.20 available on Betfair, it was time to get involved according to Mr Bonus Abuse. I agreed so we went in, stuck our balance of £678.63 at 1.20 on. However, as the bet was going through the five second in-play time delay Eoin Morgan was dismissed....bugger!

What a nightmare, we missed the price as the Aussies collapsed to 1.12. Mr Bonus Abuse still thought this was value and after a little pursuading I again agreed. So we went in again to back Australia at odds of 1.15 when the score was 119-6. The bets stands to win us £96.70 after commission.

C'mon Australia, get the Betfair balance up to £800!!!

Bet 7 - Australia To Beat England, ICC Trophy (WIN) TOTAL - £775.33

Written by Site Editor Friday, 02 October 2009 20:25

Well that was easy.........not quite as easy as Mr Bonus Abuse and myself were expecting, when we got involved at odds of 1.16 on Betfair. Thanks to Ricky Ponting and Shane Watson the Aussies chased down England's dismal 257 total with eight overs to spare and our seventh bet copped!

The Australian's looked to be in a spot of trouble early in their innings as Graeme Onions bagged Tim Paine but that brought an in-form Ponting to the crease. Ponting amassed a magnificent 111 and Watson played some extravagent strokes to finish with 136. The pair combined for an unbeaten partnership of 252 which coasted the baggy caps to a nine wicket victory.

England now return home for three weeks, before flying back out to South Africa to begin a two month tour. The Aussies now await the winners of tomorrows game between New Zealand and Pakistan, with the final played on Monday. Lets hope we can find some value in one or both of the last two games of the ICC Trophy.

So that win has put the Betfair balance up to £775.33, a profit of £575.33 from our initial investment in only seven bets. I hope like us you get the feeling this is possible now and we will make it to our 10k target.

Daily Premier League Goals

Written by Site Editor Saturday, 03 October 2009 14:55

The seventh bet was settled and the Betfair account boosted up to £775.33 and Mr Bonus Abuse has found another belter of a punt. That lad needs to get out!
Daily Premier League goals today, it makes a change from in-play cricket betting. We have managed to back 10 goals or more in all five of todays Premier League games at odds of 1.28. This bet will get us to the brink of four figures (if it cops).
Given the free scoring in the Premier League so far this season, there is no reason why the odds on this bet should be bigger than 1.2. Maybe it's got something to do with the cancellation fo Trans Atlantic flights, due to high winds, causing poeple to think there will be a goal drought today?
It's going to be an interesting afternoon/evening. Let's just hope we don't need Man Utd to score a bagful in the late kick-off this evening for us to win. Ideally we'll have all the goals we need and can cheer on Sunderland for a victory at Old Trafford, is that too much to ask for??

Bet 8 - Daily Premier League Goals 3rd October (WIN) TOTAL - £978.20

Written by Site Editor Sunday, 04 October 2009 10:44

Bet 8 was our most comfortable win to date. 10 goals or more in the Premier League fixtures on the 3rd of October at 1.28 on Betfair. The bet had copped before the final game of the day. It certainly made a change from sweating over a touch and go run chase in the cricket!

I must admit I was slightly concerned after only four goals were scored in the first half of the 3pm kick-off's but a flurry of goals around the hour mark in all the games saw us home. By the end of the 3pm kick-off's we had seen 11 goals. I was worried I was going to have to cheer on a few goals for Manchester United against Sunderland at Old Trafford.

We are thinking about having a crack at the over 8 goals in the four Premier League games today at 1.18 on Betfair, if someone comes on and lays 1.25 or 1.3 we may get involved but no bet at the moment.

So on we go, getting closer to our target. Mr Bonus Abuse thinks we need about 10 more 1.2 shots to win to get to our 10k target. Every morning I feel this is more and more likely..........do you?

Week without a bet

Written by Site Editor Friday, 09 October 2009 20:44

It's almost a week since we placed out daily Premier League goals bet. That won easily and got us to the brink of four figures. This week has been disapointing as neither myself or Mr Bonus Abuse have seen anything which has taken our fancy on Betfair this week.

There is little prospect of finding much this weekend as we are both heading off golfing. It seemed like a good idea when we booked it, but the thought of 54 holes in driving rain and winds up in North East England is somewhat off putting! On the upside there is a pool and Mr Bonus Abuse will no doubt be running a book, so I might be able to nick some value there.

Hopefully next week we may find a bet for our challenge, perhaps in the Champions League cricket or we might be waiting until the weekend for the Premier League again when we can have another look at the daily goals market on Betfair. 

Our 9th Bet Is On

Written by Site Editor Saturday, 17 October 2009 15:17

It's been a while since our last bet but we look to be back with avengeance with today's bet.

We initially tried to put our money in the market early, asking for 1.55 at Betfair for '14 goals or over' in today's seven premiership game (17th Oct). Our idea was to get as much matched as possible knowing that we would get undercut pretty easily then take the price when the market had settled down. Unfortunately some stupid *unt asked for 1.05 so we took our money out of there pretty quickly knowing there was nil chance of getting any matched.

Instead, we decided at around 12.10pm on Saturday afternoon to go for '16 or over' goals at an average price of just over 1.18. We were pretty confident before the 12.45pm kickoff at Stamford Bridge, and I am now sat here typing this article infront of the telly watching Soccer Saturday at 15.16 pm with seven goals already scored.  This should be an absolute shoe-in now.

Oops, there's another from Arsenal so that eight goals with only eight to go, and over 70mins left in the last six of today's premiership games.

Me-thinks that the Challenge still lives on......

Bet 9 - Daily Premier League Goals 17th Oct (WIN) TOTAL - £1149.23

Written by Site Editor Saturday, 17 October 2009 15:35

This snowball betting is easy. With 40 minutes gone in the 3 O'clock kick offs, Mr Bonus Abuse said to me, 'Get the Cigars Out'. With 12 goals already scored we knew that the challenge lived on.

Unfortunately the remaining four goals didn't come before half time - that would have been something special. The 16th goal came just a minute ago and was scored by Taylor for Bolton against Man Utd in the 75th minute.

This hikes the winnings up to £1149.23. We're looking pretty good at the moment, we have had a few scares in our nine bets so far but it's all been plain sailing for the past few bets. This is almost as easy as doing the bonus abuse as demonstrated in Mr Bonus Abuse's blog.

Oh, I just remembered I promised to published a screengrab of our Betfair statement. I'll get that done for you guys now so we can prove that we didn't bottom out ages ago.

Betfair Statement Screengrab - 18th Oct 2009

Written by Site Editor Sunday, 18 October 2009 13:45

As promised, just so you guys don't think we are making all this up to get traffic to the site, below is a screengrab of our Betfair statement on the 18th of October 2009. It may look a bit more confusing than we have explained in this blog but this is due to the number of different odds that we have been matched when placing the larger bets at differing odds.

I have had to rotate the image so I can fit it on the page. Enjoy......

Bet 10 on and already copped

Written by Site Editor Tuesday, 20 October 2009 21:00

Bet 10 has been placed and has already copped. Today's bet was 18 goals or more in the eight Champions League games tonight (20th October). The liquidity in the market was poor, although we managed to get all our pot matched at an average of 1.37. With £1149.23 laying down on this bet, we stood to make over £450 to add to the Challenge pool.

Amazingly 18 goals came within the first half of the games, helped along by Debreceni 2 Fiorentina 4 (HT). Our bet has come in so early that I can't even clarify the exact figure of our earnings as I need to wait for the bet to settle. Once the bet is settled I'll make another post.....

Bet 10 - Daily Champions League Goals 20th Oct (WIN) TOTAL - £1,555.04

Written by Site Editor Saturday, 24 October 2009 16:53

Confirmation that the 32 Champions League goals on Tuesday increased our total to £1,555.04. 

Please see screengrab below:

Looking back over our bets, it appears that have concentrated on a few particular markets:

Bet1 - Cricket, Ashes Outright; Bet2 - Tennis, Match Outright; Bet3 - Rugby League, Match Outright; Bet4 - Cricket, ODI Match Outright; Bet5 - Cricket, ODI Match Outright; Bet6 - Cricket, ICC Match Outright; Bet7 - Cricket, ICC Match Outright; Bet8 - Football, Daily Premiership Goals; Bet9 - Football, Daily Premiership Goals; Bet10 - Football, Daily CL goals.

Cricket Outrights x 5

Football Daily Goals x 3

Tennis Outright x 1

Rugby League Outright x 1

Most of the above bets have been in-play except for our Bradford Bulls Rugby League bet, which was easily the closest we have come to losing the challenge. I think the above spread of bets is due to of a few factors;

1) The sporting schedule - There was a heavy cricket calendar in the late summer with the Ashes, the ODIs with Australia, then the ICC Trophy.

2) We stick to what we feel comfortable with - We place our bets in-play when we can get a jist of how the teams/players are playing.

3) Statistics - This season in the Premiership/Champions League the average goals per game is over 3 this season, therefore giving us a good insight as to what is value and what isn't across a number of games on a given day.

Bet 11 - India vs Aussies 2nd ODI (WIN) TOTAL - £1,761.86

Written by Site Editor Wednesday, 28 October 2009 16:53

Above is confirmation of our 11th winning bet in a row. The total is now up to £1,761.86 after paying a total £76.14 in commission to Betfair, since the challenge began. Christ it's easy to see how Andrew Black became so rich!

The bet was on India in the second ODI vs Australia. I had an MSN message off Mr Bonus Abuse while I was at work saying that India's total of over 350 in the first innings made them a 1.01 shot to win the game. The Aussies do not have a good record of chasing down 300+ especially under lights. As always, I was a little more hesitant. I was aware that a first innings total can be misleading as both teams need to play on that particular wicket, so if it is good for the first team it would be good for the second......

India were 1.2 before the Aussies' first bowl of their innings. After three overs at a run rate of less than four an over, India were still 1.2??? It was after watching Australia's poor first overs that I was confident enough in the odds. Just as I was about to place the bet India took their first wicket, Paine out off a lovely bowl by Kumar. Australia 20-1 and India were now 1.13 to win.

I waited until I could snatch 1.14 then went all in. The rest is history...India won by 99 runs - a massive victory for a ODI. We are now closing in on 2k, only another eight k to go!

Bet 12 placed - India v Australia 4th ODI

Written by Site Editor Monday, 02 November 2009 15:40

A very quick post to let you all know that our 12th bet has been placed.

We have just backed India to beat Australia in the 4th ODI. With MS Dhoni at the crease the 1.42 we have about the Indian victory looks huge! We have £1761.86 on at 1.42. When this wins we'll be well over the 2k mark! C'mon the Indians.......

Back later with the updated Betfair P/L.

Bet 12 - India vs Australia 4th ODI (LOST) - £0.00

Written by Site Editor Monday, 02 November 2009 17:57

We've done our money, the dream is over, need I say more?? No sooner had I made the last post and MS Dhoni was out. The odds flipped and the Aussies won comfortably. The Betfair balance has bombed to three duck eggs....£0.00! 

A stiff drink is required.......

The Challenge has ended!

Written by Site Editor Wednesday, 04 November 2009 17:57

Well, after 11 winning bets our challenge crashed and burned in the 4th ODI between India and Australia. Both myself and Mr Bonus Abuse thought we'd cracked it, we thought we were within about 6 or 7 bets from reaching our 10K target and a nice all expenses paid holiday. How wrong we were....

Looking back with a clear head, I can say we had a good run and a lot of fun for our money with this challenge. One thing which this style of betting has clearly displayed, is that it is possible to make profit punting at low odds in-running. We are both convinced we got some superb value bets, particularly when betting on the cricket. I would even go as far to say that the final, losing bet was a good 'value' bet.

I am sure we will both consider doing another challenge, however I would be hesitant about doing an all in strategy (once bitten twice shy). So all that is left to say is I hope you have enjoyed reading this blog and maybe it's given you some food for thought next time you log in to Betfair.

Happy punting!